A Rich China Recedes into the Distance

China on Monday announced that it exactly hit the 2025 real GDP growth target of five percent. Even if you believe it, and you shouldn’t, the rest of what was announced is still disturbing for the country’s macroeconomic trajectory. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) put GDP at $19.8 trillion , on four percent nominal growth.

The GDP deflator was negative, producer prices fell again, and consumer prices were flat. Real GDP slowed to a 4.5 percent rise in the fourth quarter, officially. Deceleration and another year of deflation cannot, of course, stop NBS from insisting on acceleration out of the blue to start 2026.

This would probably be disinformation. There’s also foreign disinformation. You’ll hear China’s GDP per capita has breached $14,000.

GDP per capita is a poor substitute fo