Betting on War: Prediction Markets and the Corruption of National Security

Prediction markets have proven remarkably effective at aggregating dispersed information across many domains. From technology product launches to election forecasting, they often outperform expert predictions. But when applied to military operations, these same mechanisms create categorically different risks.

Now Ukrainian volunteers, Russian military bloggers, and American security clearance holders alike can convert insider knowledge of military operations into profit through pseudonymous crypto wallets.At 2 a.m. local time on Jan. 3, 2026, explosions echoed across Caracas.

Low-flying aircraft struck military installations. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife were captured by U.S. forces.

Hours earlier, a newly created Polymarket account had The post Betting on War: Predicti