America’s Center Has Not Radicalized. It Has Checked Out.

For more than two decades, my research has pointed to a basic but often misunderstood reality of American public life: The culture war is not being driven by a radicalized public. It is being driven by deeply engaged, activist elites who push an extreme, uncompromising agenda while there has been a concurrent, steady withdrawal of moderates from the institutions that once anchored pluralism, restraint, compromise, and broad representation. New data from Gallup now make that reality difficult to deny.

In 2025, 45 percent of Americans identified as political independents—the highest level Gallup has ever recorded. Only 27 percent identified as Democrats and 27 percent as Republicans. Together, the two major parties now claim barely half the country.

This is not a momentary backlash against p